Iowa is known for taking the presidential voting process very seriously. Unlike their primary-election counterparts, Iowa-caucus voters don’t simply show up at the polls and choose their favorite candidates. Their system includes an additional, unusual component: a community discussion that takes place in each of the state’s 1,681 precincts before either party’s registered constituents finally cast their ballots. The voting itself happens in one evening, after a yearlong process of meeting the contestants, arguing about them and enduring the bright glare of the media spotlight.
Over the years, this unique operation has attracted praise for exemplifying “grassroots democracy” as well as condemnation for perpetuating what many consider an outdated, unrepresentative procedure. Since the 1970s, however, Iowa has been the first state to confirm — or rather predict — a presidential hopeful’s success in the ensuing primaries and likelihood of advancement in the race. Iowa’s role, in effect, is to weed out the ineffective candidates, but it does not guarantee who will win the party nomination.
Iowa has gone to great lengths to secure its position as the first primary-election state. However, this caucus doesn’t actually have that good of a track record of predicting election results. Since 1976, 70 percent of Democratic winners in Iowa have received their party’s nomination, but only 37.5 percent of Republicans have. In addition, only 20% of Democrats and 12.5% of Republicans who have won Iowa have also been elected president. As the nation’s political attention now turns toward the Midwestern state, WalletHub compared Iowa’s demographic likeness and public opinions with the U.S. using 31 key metrics. Scroll down for the results, additional expert commentary and our detailed methodology.
